Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Forex ascending/descending trend lines versus horizontal trend lines

Although I respect all trend lines, I don't use much ascending or descending trend lines. These types of lines can only be helpful for long term trading, such as daily, weekly and higher. Then on high time frame charts one can clearly see a trend line, and what's more important, trade successfully with it.

If to look at shorter time frames, less that 1 day, ascending/descending (let's call them Sloping) trend lines have almost no use: the moment Forex traders identify them and decide to base their trading decisions on them, the last one get passed by price without any significant respect. If someone doubts my words, please count how many times sloping trend line have really worked as expected...

With all that said let's not forget that trend lines aren't useless or hopeless. There are other great type of trend lines which is much more reliable - these are horizontal trend lines. Horizontal trend lines form levels of support and resistance. If you think about it, support and resistance levels are standing at certain price values. They have a clear identity of where (at which exact point or area) Forex market found difficulties moving further and stopped or reversed.

Compare it now with sloping trend lines, they have no such price values, because they are either ascending or descending as the time passes. They offer some sort of price corridor for the market, but don't advice clearly at which point to expect a change. that's probably why they are less predictable and reliable on smaller time frames.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Interesting thought, thank you for sharing.
What do you think about channel trading? could it also be called as trend line method or is it something else?

Anonymous said...

channel trading starts with trend line plotted. Then the copy of the trend line is projected to the other side to form a channel.

It could be either horizontal channel or ascending/descending channel.

The rules of trading channels - trading bounces of channel borders, trading breakouts of the channels are absolutely the same as for trend line trading.

 
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